Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-10-30 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 53.3%

BUF: 46.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.35

BUF: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 38%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	BOS	BUF
Season SV%	0.882	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.60	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	40	37	3	92.5%	4.44	5	1.44
BUF	Alex Lyon	22	18	4	81.8%	2.76	2	-1.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • BOS at home vs BUF: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	11	1	1.07
1	BUF	18	1	1.18
2	BOS	15	1	0.89
2	BUF	26	3	2.28
3	BOS	10	0	0.44
3	BUF	17	1	0.97
4	BOS	4	0	0.36
4	BUF	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2