Calgary Flames at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-10-30 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 Calgary Flames (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 57.9%

CGY: 42.1%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.59

CGY: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 34%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	OTT	CGY
Season SV%	0.881	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	30	27	3	90.0%	2.71	2	-0.29
CGY	Devin Cooley	40	35	5	87.5%	5.32	4	0.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • OTT at home vs CGY: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	CGY 1 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-30	OTT 4 - 3 CGY	OTT	OTT
2024-12-19	CGY 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-11-25	OTT 4 - 3 CGY	OTT	OTT
2024-01-09	CGY 6 - 3 OTT	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	16	0	1.37
1	CGY	13	2	1.61
2	OTT	16	0	0.74
2	CGY	10	0	0.50
3	OTT	14	0	0.60
3	CGY	10	0	0.42
4	OTT	9	2	0.87
4	CGY	1	0	0.01
5	OTT	2	2	1.74
5	CGY	2	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0