Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-10-30 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 Dallas Stars (OT)

Win Probability

TBL: 61.8%

DAL: 38.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.20

DAL: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TBL at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-18	DAL 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-30	TBL 2 - 1 DAL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-20	DAL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-23	TBL 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	TBL
2023-12-04	TBL 4 - 0 DAL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	20	2	1.90
1	DAL	9	1	0.57
2	TBL	22	0	1.28
2	DAL	7	0	0.60
3	TBL	13	1	1.05
3	DAL	13	1	0.95
4	TBL	3	1	0.47
4	DAL	1	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8