Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-10-30 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 Dallas Stars (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 61.8%

DAL: 38.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.12

DAL: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	TBL	DAL
Season SV%	0.913	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	21	20	1	95.2%	2.29	2	1.29
DAL	Jake Oettinger	33	31	2	93.9%	4.70	4	2.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-18	DAL 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	DAL
2025-10-30	TBL 2 - 1 DAL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-20	DAL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-23	TBL 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	TBL
2023-12-04	TBL 4 - 0 DAL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	20	2	1.90
1	DAL	9	1	0.57
2	TBL	22	0	1.28
2	DAL	7	0	0.60
3	TBL	13	1	1.05
3	DAL	13	1	0.95
4	TBL	3	1	0.47
4	DAL	1	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9