New Jersey Devils at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-10-30 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 5 - 2 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 46.1%

NJD: 53.9%

Expected Goals

SJS: 4.57

NJD: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Stat	SJS	NJD
Season SV%	0.895	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.06	2.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	31	29	2	93.5%	1.92	0	-0.08
NJD	Jake Allen	28	23	5	82.1%	2.54	1	-2.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • SJS at home vs NJD: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-30	SJS 5 - 2 NJD	SJS	NJD
2025-10-24	NJD 3 - 1 SJS	NJD	NJD
2025-01-04	SJS 3 - 2 NJD	SJS	NJD
2024-11-10	NJD 0 - 1 SJS	SJS	NJD
2024-02-27	SJS 2 - 7 NJD	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	21	0	1.56
1	NJD	12	0	0.70
2	SJS	14	1	0.97
2	NJD	14	0	0.96
3	SJS	1	0	0.01
3	NJD	12	0	0.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.6

Score Breakdown