Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-10-31 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 44.7%

COL: 55.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.18

COL: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carl Lindbom - 0-3-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.18 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	VGK	COL
Season SV%	0.874	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carl Lindbom	26	22	4	84.6%	3.53	3	-0.47
COL	Scott Wedgewood	23	21	2	91.3%	2.26	0	0.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • VGK at home vs COL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	15	0	0.64
1	COL	13	1	0.80
2	VGK	12	0	0.68
2	COL	18	1	1.50
3	VGK	14	0	0.94
3	COL	10	1	1.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown