New York Islanders at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-10-31 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 64.6%

NYI: 35.4%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.04

NYI: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • WSH at home vs NYI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	WSH 4 - 1 NYI	WSH	WSH
2025-11-30	NYI 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-10-31	WSH 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	WSH
2025-10-11	NYI 2 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-04-15	NYI 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	16	1	1.18
1	NYI	11	0	0.46
2	WSH	11	1	0.89
2	NYI	13	0	1.10
3	WSH	7	0	0.55
3	NYI	16	2	2.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4