New York Islanders at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-10-31 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 60.6%

NYI: 39.4%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.40

NYI: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	WSH	NYI
Season SV%	0.913	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	23	20	3	87.0%	3.80	2	0.80
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	23	22	1	95.7%	2.63	2	1.63

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • WSH at home vs NYI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	WSH 4 - 1 NYI	WSH	WSH
2025-11-30	NYI 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-10-31	WSH 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	WSH
2025-10-11	NYI 2 - 4 WSH	WSH	NYI
2025-04-15	NYI 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	16	1	1.18
1	NYI	11	0	0.46
2	WSH	11	1	0.89
2	NYI	13	0	1.10
3	WSH	7	0	0.55
3	NYI	16	2	2.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown