Pittsburgh Penguins at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-11-01 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 5 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 47.0%

PIT: 53.0%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.14

PIT: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WPG at home vs PIT: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	PIT 5 - 4 WPG	PIT	PIT
2025-11-01	WPG 5 - 2 PIT	WPG	PIT
2024-11-22	PIT 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	PIT
2024-10-20	WPG 6 - 3 PIT	WPG	WPG
2024-02-10	WPG 2 - 1 PIT	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	12	1	0.76
1	PIT	13	0	0.65
2	WPG	17	1	1.38
2	PIT	12	0	0.76
3	WPG	18	2	2.20
3	PIT	19	0	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 5 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3