Colorado Avalanche at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-11-01 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 2 Colorado Avalanche (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (66% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 34.5%

COL: 65.5%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.83

COL: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Stat	SJS	COL
Season SV%	0.896	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	2.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	39	37	2	94.9%	4.34	2	2.34
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	23	20	3	87.0%	1.84	0	-1.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • SJS at home vs COL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	COL 4 - 2 SJS	COL	COL
2025-11-26	COL 6 - 0 SJS	COL	COL
2025-11-01	SJS 3 - 2 COL	SJS	COL
2025-03-06	COL 7 - 3 SJS	COL	COL
2024-12-19	SJS 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	8	0	0.43
1	COL	19	0	0.81
2	SJS	6	0	0.26
2	COL	24	1	2.30
3	SJS	12	0	0.90
3	COL	15	1	1.05
4	SJS	3	0	0.24
4	COL	1	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.8 - 2.8