Dallas Stars at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-11-01 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 4 - 3 Dallas Stars (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 71.3%

DAL: 28.7%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.42

DAL: 2.34

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Stat	FLA	DAL
Season SV%	0.888	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.80	2.44

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	24	21	3	87.5%	2.19	2	-0.81
DAL	Casey DeSmith	31	27	4	87.1%	3.74	2	-0.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • FLA at home vs DAL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	DAL 0 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-11-01	FLA 4 - 3 DAL	FLA	FLA
2024-11-02	FLA 4 - 2 DAL	FLA	FLA
2024-11-01	DAL 4 - 6 FLA	FLA	DAL
2024-03-12	DAL 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	10	1	1.00
1	DAL	6	0	0.31
2	FLA	18	0	0.89
2	DAL	8	1	0.63
3	FLA	12	0	0.56
3	DAL	10	0	0.51
4	FLA	4	0	0.25
4	DAL	6	1	0.50
5	FLA	3	1	1.04
5	DAL	3	0	0.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 4 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.4 - 2.3