Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-11-01 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Washington Capitals (SO)

Win Probability

BUF: 54.5%

WSH: 45.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.85

WSH: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • BUF at home vs WSH: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	WSH 6 - 2 BUF	WSH	BUF
2026-03-12	BUF 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	BUF
2025-11-01	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	BUF
2025-03-30	WSH 5 - 8 BUF	BUF	WSH
2025-01-06	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	17	1	1.27
1	WSH	13	1	0.66
2	BUF	11	0	0.74
2	WSH	21	0	1.30
3	BUF	11	1	0.84
3	WSH	9	0	0.38
4	BUF	1	0	0.01
4	WSH	7	0	0.60
5	BUF	5	1	1.22
5	WSH	5	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2