Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-11-01 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 39.9%

OTT: 60.1%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.73

OTT: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	MTL	OTT
Season SV%	0.863	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.52	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	17	14	3	82.4%	2.43	3	-0.57
OTT	Linus Ullmark	27	23	4	85.2%	3.45	4	-0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • MTL at home vs OTT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	OTT
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	13	2	1.24
1	OTT	13	1	0.60
2	MTL	14	2	1.61
2	OTT	12	2	1.30
3	MTL	10	0	0.34
3	OTT	9	0	0.54
4	MTL	2	0	0.25
4	OTT	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.7 - 3.2