Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-11-01 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 55.3%

TOR: 44.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.49

TOR: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs TOR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	TOR
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	0	0.70
1	TOR	12	0	0.94
2	PHI	16	0	0.89
2	TOR	15	1	1.10
3	PHI	23	0	1.46
3	TOR	10	3	1.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1