Tampa Bay Lightning at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions
2025-11-02 • Delta Center
Utah Hockey Club 2 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
UTA: 56.5%
TBL: 43.5%
Expected Goals
UTA: 3.37
TBL: 3.04
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
UTA
Karel Vejmelka - 27-15-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.61 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | UTA | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.897 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.907 | 1.000 |
| GAA | 2.68 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • UTA at home vs TBL: 1-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-26 | TBL 2 - 0 UTA | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-02 | UTA 2 - 4 TBL | TBL | UTA |
| 2025-03-27 | TBL 8 - 0 UTA | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-22 | UTA 6 - 4 TBL | UTA | UTA |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:17 | UTA | Goal |
| 1 | 05:55 | UTA | Goal |
| 2 | 02:47 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:44 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 12:06 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 02:21 | UTA | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Utah Hockey Club 2 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.4 - 3.0