Columbus Blue Jackets at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-11-02 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 64.5%

CBJ: 35.5%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.36

CBJ: 2.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 54%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

David Rittich - 10-5-2 | 0.909 SV% | 2.46 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Stat	NYI	CBJ
Season SV%	0.909	0.877
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	4.04

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	David Rittich	22	20	2	90.9%	3.40	6	1.40
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	39	36	3	92.3%	4.37	4	1.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NYI at home vs CBJ: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	NYI 1 - 0 CBJ	NYI	NYI
2026-02-28	CBJ 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	CBJ
2025-12-28	CBJ 4 - 2 NYI	CBJ	CBJ
2025-11-02	NYI 3 - 2 CBJ	NYI	NYI
2025-04-17	CBJ 6 - 1 NYI	CBJ	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	22	1	1.55
1	CBJ	6	0	0.16
2	NYI	11	0	0.63
2	CBJ	19	4	2.43
3	NYI	20	3	2.18
3	CBJ	8	2	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown