Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-11-02 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 62.9%

CGY: 37.1%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.93

CGY: 2.61

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 36%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Aleksei Kolosov - 5-9-1 | 0.867 SV% | 3.59 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	PHI	CGY
Season SV%	0.867	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.59	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Aleksei Kolosov	21	19	2	90.5%	1.92	1	-0.08
CGY	Dustin Wolf	18	17	1	94.4%	1.58	1	0.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs CGY: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	CGY 5 - 1 PHI	CGY	CGY
2025-11-02	PHI 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PHI
2025-03-04	PHI 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	PHI
2024-10-12	CGY 6 - 3 PHI	CGY	CGY
2024-01-06	PHI 3 - 2 CGY	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	7	0	0.34
1	CGY	12	0	0.73
2	PHI	13	1	0.84
2	CGY	13	0	0.50
3	PHI	12	0	0.40
3	CGY	5	1	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown