Detroit Red Wings at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-11-02 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 45.2%

DET: 54.8%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.88

DET: 3.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Stat	SJS	DET
Season SV%	0.895	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.06	2.99

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	35	32	3	91.4%	4.02	1	1.02
DET	Cam Talbot	20	18	2	90.0%	1.45	0	-0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 30% • SJS at home vs DET: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	DET 4 - 2 SJS	DET	DET
2025-11-02	SJS 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-01-14	DET 3 - 6 SJS	SJS	DET
2024-11-18	SJS 5 - 4 DET	SJS	DET
2024-01-02	SJS 3 - 5 DET	DET	SJS

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	8	0	0.17
1	DET	14	0	0.77
2	SJS	7	0	0.34
2	DET	17	0	0.90
3	SJS	8	0	0.47
3	DET	15	0	0.83
4	SJS	3	0	0.16
4	DET	4	0	0.40
5	SJS	4	0	0.32
5	DET	4	1	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 2.9 - 3.5