Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2025-11-03 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 56.1%
PIT: 43.9%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.38
PIT: 2.77
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | TOR | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.906 | 0.862 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • TOR at home vs PIT: 5-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | TOR 6 - 3 PIT | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-11-29 | PIT 2 - 7 TOR | TOR | PIT |
| 2025-11-03 | TOR 4 - 3 PIT | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-03-02 | PIT 5 - 6 TOR | TOR | PIT |
| 2024-12-07 | PIT 5 - 2 TOR | PIT | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:56 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 13:08 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 11:50 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 13:43 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 06:55 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 04:47 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 03:31 | PIT | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 56.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.4 - 2.8