Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-11-03 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 61.7%

PIT: 38.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.78

PIT: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Stat	TOR	PIT
Season SV%	0.884	0.892
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.51	3.12

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	37	34	3	91.9%	4.13	2	1.13
PIT	Tristan Jarry	20	16	4	80.0%	2.12	0	-1.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs PIT: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	0	0.71
1	PIT	15	1	1.78
2	TOR	5	0	0.37
2	PIT	24	0	1.54
3	TOR	15	0	1.03
3	PIT	14	1	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown