Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-11-03 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

TOR: 58.1%

PIT: 41.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.65

PIT: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs PIT: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	PIT
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	0	0.71
1	PIT	15	1	1.78
2	TOR	5	0	0.37
2	PIT	24	0	1.54
3	TOR	15	0	1.03
3	PIT	14	1	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.7 - 3.1