Edmonton Oilers at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-11-03 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 42.5%

EDM: 57.5%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.09

EDM: 3.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

Stat	STL	EDM
Season SV%	0.869	0.874
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.56	3.69

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	26	24	2	92.3%	2.29	1	0.29
EDM	Calvin Pickard	22	19	3	86.4%	2.36	1	-0.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • STL at home vs EDM: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-13	STL 3 - 2 EDM	STL	EDM
2026-01-18	EDM 5 - 0 STL	EDM	EDM
2025-11-03	STL 3 - 2 EDM	STL	EDM
2025-04-09	EDM 4 - 3 STL	EDM	EDM
2025-02-04	STL 2 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	13	0	0.43
1	EDM	11	0	0.71
2	STL	13	0	1.27
2	EDM	14	1	1.15
3	STL	9	1	0.66
3	EDM	12	0	0.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown