Utah Hockey Club at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2025-11-04 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 1 - 2 Utah Hockey Club (OT)
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 57.7%
UTA: 42.3%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.36
UTA: 2.98
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
UTA
Karel Vejmelka - 27-15-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.61 GAA
| Stat | BUF | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.934 | 0.897 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.943 | 0.919 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.68 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BUF at home vs UTA: 0-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-12 | UTA 5 - 2 BUF | UTA | UTA |
| 2025-11-04 | BUF 1 - 2 UTA | UTA | BUF |
| 2025-03-20 | UTA 5 - 2 BUF | UTA | UTA |
| 2024-12-07 | BUF 2 - 5 UTA | UTA | BUF |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 03:58 | UTA | Goal |
| 3 | 07:50 | BUF | Goal |
| 4 | 00:47 | UTA | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 1 - 2 Utah Hockey Club
Expected: 3.4 - 3.0