Utah Hockey Club at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-11-04 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 2 Utah Hockey Club (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 55.2%

UTA: 44.8%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.40

UTA: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	BUF	UTA
Season SV%	0.906	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Alex Lyon	35	33	2	94.3%	3.80	2	1.80
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	18	17	1	94.4%	2.26	3	1.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • BUF at home vs UTA: 0-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-12	UTA 5 - 2 BUF	UTA	UTA
2025-11-04	BUF 1 - 2 UTA	UTA	BUF
2025-03-20	UTA 5 - 2 BUF	UTA	UTA
2024-12-07	BUF 2 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	1	0.81
1	UTA	14	0	1.04
2	BUF	7	1	0.64
2	UTA	24	1	1.89
3	BUF	7	1	0.69
3	UTA	15	1	0.68
4	BUF	1	0	0.12
4	UTA	1	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 2 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2