Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-11-04 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers (SO)
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 59.1%
PHI: 40.9%
Expected Goals
MTL: 4.14
PHI: 3.10
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 71%
Over 6.5: 55%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
| Stat | MTL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.903 | 0.918 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.881 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • MTL at home vs PHI: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | MTL 1 - 4 PHI | PHI | MTL |
| 2025-11-04 | MTL 4 - 5 PHI | PHI | MTL |
| 2025-04-05 | MTL 3 - 2 PHI | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-03-27 | PHI 6 - 4 MTL | PHI | PHI |
| 2024-10-27 | PHI 3 - 4 MTL | MTL | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:50 | PHI | Goal |
| 1 | 07:07 | PHI | Goal |
| 1 | 01:56 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 15:57 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 13:28 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 04:15 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 03:12 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 10:51 | MTL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | MTL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 7.2
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 4.1 - 3.1