Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-11-04 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

COL: 71.0%

TBL: 29.0%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.62

TBL: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs TBL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	TBL 4 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2025-11-04	COL 3 - 2 TBL	COL	COL
2024-11-25	TBL 8 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2024-10-30	COL 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	COL
2024-02-15	TBL 6 - 3 COL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	11	1	0.96
1	TBL	13	0	0.55
2	COL	18	1	1.60
2	TBL	12	0	0.42
3	COL	14	0	0.86
3	TBL	16	0	1.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8