Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-11-04 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 64.2%

TBL: 35.8%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.60

TBL: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	COL	TBL
Season SV%	0.919	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	24	22	2	91.7%	2.21	0	0.21
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	33	30	3	90.9%	3.42	2	0.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • COL at home vs TBL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	TBL 4 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2025-11-04	COL 3 - 2 TBL	COL	COL
2024-11-25	TBL 8 - 2 COL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-30	COL 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	COL
2024-02-15	TBL 6 - 3 COL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	11	1	0.96
1	TBL	13	0	0.55
2	COL	18	1	1.60
2	TBL	12	0	0.42
3	COL	14	0	0.86
3	TBL	16	0	1.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown