Detroit Red Wings at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-11-04 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 0 Detroit Red Wings

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 73.0%

DET: 27.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.27

DET: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

Stat	VGK	DET
Season SV%	0.895	0.893
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.50	2.97

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Akira Schmid	24	24	0	100.0%	2.03	1	2.03
DET	John Gibson	34	33	1	97.1%	4.23	5	3.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs DET: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	DET 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-11-04	VGK 1 - 0 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-22	VGK 6 - 3 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-16	DET 3 - 0 VGK	DET	VGK
2024-03-09	VGK 5 - 3 DET	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	17	2	1.44
1	DET	15	0	0.52
2	VGK	14	2	1.17
2	DET	13	1	0.69
3	VGK	18	1	1.62
3	DET	18	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown