Utah Hockey Club at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-11-05 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 3 Utah Hockey Club

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 54.4%

UTA: 45.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.36

UTA: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

UTA

Vitek Vanecek - 2-9-1 | 0.879 SV% | 2.92 GAA

Stat	TOR	UTA
Season SV%	0.884	0.879
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.51	2.92

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	24	21	3	87.5%	1.97	0	-1.03
UTA	Vitek Vanecek	19	14	5	73.7%	3.63	3	-1.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • TOR at home vs UTA: 2-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	UTA 6 - 1 TOR	UTA	UTA
2025-11-05	TOR 5 - 3 UTA	TOR	TOR
2025-03-10	UTA 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	UTA
2024-11-24	TOR 3 - 2 UTA	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	0	0.97
1	UTA	12	0	0.49
2	TOR	8	1	0.59
2	UTA	14	0	0.79
3	TOR	11	2	2.08
3	UTA	10	0	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown