Utah Hockey Club at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-11-05 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 3 Utah Hockey Club

Win Probability

TOR: 61.8%

UTA: 38.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.93

UTA: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • TOR at home vs UTA: 2-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	UTA 6 - 1 TOR	UTA	UTA
2025-11-05	TOR 5 - 3 UTA	TOR	TOR
2025-03-10	UTA 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	UTA
2024-11-24	TOR 3 - 2 UTA	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	0	0.97
1	UTA	12	0	0.49
2	TOR	8	1	0.59
2	UTA	14	0	0.79
3	TOR	11	2	2.08
3	UTA	10	0	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 3 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1