St. Louis Blues at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-11-05 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 6 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

WSH: 55.8%

STL: 44.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.40

STL: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • WSH at home vs STL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL
2025-11-05	WSH 6 - 1 STL	WSH	WSH
2025-02-27	WSH 2 - 5 STL	STL	STL
2024-11-09	STL 1 - 8 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-01-20	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	18	1	1.13
1	STL	9	0	0.56
2	WSH	13	2	1.27
2	STL	15	0	1.11
3	WSH	14	2	1.53
3	STL	12	0	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 6 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1