Columbus Blue Jackets at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-11-05 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 1 Columbus Blue Jackets

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 52.7%

CBJ: 47.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.29

CBJ: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

Stat	CGY	CBJ
Season SV%	0.901	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.62

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	43	42	1	97.7%	3.21	0	2.21
CBJ	Jet Greaves	26	21	5	80.8%	2.74	1	-2.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • CGY at home vs CBJ: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	CBJ 5 - 3 CGY	CBJ	CBJ
2025-11-05	CGY 5 - 1 CBJ	CGY	CGY
2024-12-03	CGY 3 - 0 CBJ	CGY	CGY
2024-11-29	CBJ 5 - 2 CGY	CBJ	CBJ
2024-01-25	CGY 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	18	0	1.14
1	CBJ	14	0	0.85
2	CGY	10	0	0.72
2	CBJ	19	0	0.88
3	CGY	6	1	0.87
3	CBJ	28	0	1.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown