Chicago Blackhawks at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-11-05 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 5 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 51.6%

CHI: 48.4%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.05

CHI: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Stat	VAN	CHI
Season SV%	0.885	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.41	2.63

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	28	23	5	82.1%	3.76	3	-1.24
CHI	Spencer Knight	45	43	2	95.6%	4.91	5	2.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • VAN at home vs CHI: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	CHI 3 - 6 VAN	VAN	CHI
2025-11-05	VAN 2 - 5 CHI	CHI	VAN
2025-10-17	CHI 2 - 3 VAN	VAN	CHI
2025-03-15	VAN 6 - 2 CHI	VAN	VAN
2024-11-16	VAN 4 - 1 CHI	VAN	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	23	1	1.56
1	CHI	15	0	0.95
2	VAN	24	4	2.48
2	CHI	11	0	0.54
3	VAN	16	0	0.86
3	CHI	15	3	2.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown