St. Louis Blues at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2025-11-06 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 0 - 3 St. Louis Blues
🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 52.6%
STL: 47.4%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.49
STL: 2.40
Total Goals
Median: 4.6
Over 5.5: 39%
Over 6.5: 25%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
STL
Joel Hofer - 24-13-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.61 GAA
| Stat | BUF | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.847 | 0.908 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.889 | 0.951 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.87 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • BUF at home vs STL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | STL 2 - 4 BUF | BUF | STL |
| 2025-11-06 | BUF 0 - 3 STL | STL | BUF |
| 2024-12-29 | STL 2 - 4 BUF | BUF | STL |
| 2024-11-14 | BUF 4 - 3 STL | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-02-10 | BUF 1 - 3 STL | STL | BUF |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 52.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 0 - 3 St. Louis Blues
Expected: 3.5 - 2.4
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