St. Louis Blues at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-11-06 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 0 - 3 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 63.1%

STL: 36.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.35

STL: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Stat	BUF	STL
Season SV%	0.903	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.87

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	17	14	3	82.4%	2.02	1	-0.98
STL	Joel Hofer	28	28	0	100.0%	2.73	1	2.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs STL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-29	STL 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-11-06	BUF 0 - 3 STL	STL	BUF
2024-12-29	STL 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-11-14	BUF 4 - 3 STL	BUF	BUF
2024-02-10	BUF 1 - 3 STL	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	11	0	0.67
1	STL	7	0	0.58
2	BUF	11	0	0.51
2	STL	13	0	0.49
3	BUF	19	1	1.55
3	STL	6	1	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown