Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-11-06 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 3 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

PIT: 52.5%

WSH: 47.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.37

WSH: 3.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • PIT at home vs WSH: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH
2025-02-22	PIT 3 - 8 WSH	WSH	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	23	1	1.72
1	WSH	8	0	0.29
2	PIT	16	1	1.53
2	WSH	21	2	1.96
3	PIT	12	1	1.07
3	WSH	13	0	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.4 - 3.5