Anaheim Ducks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-11-06 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 7 Anaheim Ducks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 45.2%

ANA: 54.8%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.25

ANA: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	DAL	ANA
Season SV%	0.907	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	25	18	7	72.0%	3.94	3	-3.06
ANA	Lukas Dostal	26	21	5	80.8%	3.20	5	-1.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • DAL at home vs ANA: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	ANA 3 - 1 DAL	ANA	ANA
2025-12-19	ANA 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	ANA
2025-11-06	DAL 5 - 7 ANA	ANA	ANA
2025-03-18	DAL 4 - 3 ANA	DAL	DAL
2025-02-04	ANA 2 - 1 DAL	ANA	ANA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	10	0	0.74
1	ANA	10	0	0.59
2	DAL	5	1	0.52
2	ANA	21	2	1.79
3	DAL	17	4	1.94
3	ANA	9	1	1.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown