Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2025-11-06 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 62.6%
TBL: 37.4%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.52
TBL: 2.40
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 39%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | VGK | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.922 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs TBL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-06 | VGK 3 - 6 TBL | TBL | VGK |
| 2025-10-26 | TBL 2 - 1 VGK | TBL | VGK |
| 2025-03-23 | VGK 4 - 2 TBL | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-10-17 | TBL 4 - 3 VGK | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-03-19 | VGK 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.5 - 2.4
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