Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-11-06 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 55.6%

TBL: 44.4%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.58

TBL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-06	VGK 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	VGK
2025-10-26	TBL 2 - 1 VGK	TBL	TBL
2025-03-23	VGK 4 - 2 TBL	VGK	VGK
2024-10-17	TBL 4 - 3 VGK	TBL	VGK
2024-03-19	VGK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	1	1.18
1	TBL	10	0	0.87
2	VGK	7	0	0.39
2	TBL	22	1	1.95
3	VGK	17	1	1.59
3	TBL	19	4	3.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.6 - 3.3