Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-11-06 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 60.4%

TBL: 39.6%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.46

TBL: 2.51

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carl Lindbom - 0-3-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.18 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	VGK	TBL
Season SV%	0.874	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carl Lindbom	27	21	6	77.8%	6.60	5	0.60
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	32	29	3	90.6%	3.16	2	0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • VGK at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-06	VGK 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	VGK
2025-10-26	TBL 2 - 1 VGK	TBL	TBL
2025-03-23	VGK 4 - 2 TBL	VGK	VGK
2024-10-17	TBL 4 - 3 VGK	TBL	TBL
2024-03-19	VGK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	1	1.18
1	TBL	10	0	0.87
2	VGK	7	0	0.39
2	TBL	22	1	1.95
3	VGK	17	1	1.59
3	TBL	19	4	3.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown