New York Rangers at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-11-07 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 4 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 50.8%

NYR: 49.2%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.10

NYR: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

Stat	DET	NYR
Season SV%	0.888	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.99	2.11

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	26	22	4	84.6%	3.03	0	-0.97
NYR	Jonathan Quick	33	32	1	97.0%	2.35	0	1.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs NYR: 0-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	NYR 4 - 1 DET	NYR	NYR
2025-11-16	NYR 1 - 2 DET	DET	NYR
2025-11-07	DET 1 - 4 NYR	NYR	DET
2024-11-09	DET 0 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2024-10-17	DET 2 - 5 NYR	NYR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	DET	17	1.02
1	NYR	13	0.81
2	DET	14	0.81
2	NYR	21	1.22
3	DET	12	0.51
3	NYR	12	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown