Minnesota Wild at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-11-07 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 5 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 64.9%

MIN: 35.1%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.43

MIN: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

David Rittich - 10-5-2 | 0.909 SV% | 2.46 GAA

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

Stat	NYI	MIN
Season SV%	0.909	0.928
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.21

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	David Rittich	26	21	5	80.8%	2.79	2	-2.21
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	27	25	2	92.6%	2.27	3	0.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs MIN: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	MIN 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MIN
2025-11-07	NYI 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	NYI
2025-04-04	NYI 3 - 1 MIN	NYI	NYI
2025-02-08	MIN 6 - 3 NYI	MIN	MIN
2024-01-15	MIN 5 - 0 NYI	MIN	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	11	0	0.47
1	MIN	11	0	0.61
2	NYI	15	2	1.24
2	MIN	16	2	1.31
3	NYI	8	1	0.56
3	MIN	13	0	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown