Chicago Blackhawks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-11-07 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 0 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 52.4%

CHI: 47.6%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.07

CHI: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Stat	CGY	CHI
Season SV%	0.901	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.63

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	27	23	4	85.2%	2.04	1	-1.96
CHI	Spencer Knight	33	33	0	100.0%	2.22	2	2.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • CGY at home vs CHI: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	CHI 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-11-18	CHI 5 - 2 CGY	CHI	CGY
2025-11-07	CGY 0 - 4 CHI	CHI	CGY
2025-01-13	CHI 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-12-21	CGY 6 - 4 CHI	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	14	0	0.40
1	CHI	13	0	0.45
2	CGY	16	0	0.76
2	CHI	9	0	0.39
3	CGY	16	2	1.05
3	CHI	12	1	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown