Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-11-08 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 46.8%

OTT: 53.2%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.36

OTT: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	PHI	OTT
Season SV%	0.868	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.09	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	14	11	3	78.6%	2.45	2	-0.55
OTT	Linus Ullmark	22	20	2	90.9%	2.38	0	0.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs OTT: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	PHI 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-08	PHI 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-23	OTT 2 - 1 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-04-13	OTT 4 - 3 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-03-11	PHI 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	6	0	0.50
1	OTT	14	1	1.14
2	PHI	16	0	1.08
2	OTT	8	1	0.87
3	PHI	14	0	0.80
3	OTT	4	0	0.13
4	PHI	0	0	0.00
4	OTT	3	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0