Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2025-11-08 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 4 - 5 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NSH: 56.6%

DAL: 43.4%

Expected Goals

NSH: 2.99

DAL: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NSH

Justus Annunen - 3-5-1 | 0.875 SV% | 3.29 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	NSH	DAL
Season SV%	0.875	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.29	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	Justus Annunen	22	17	5	77.3%	2.84	3	-2.16
DAL	Jake Oettinger	21	17	4	81.0%	1.89	2	-2.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NSH at home vs DAL: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	DAL 3 - 2 NSH	DAL	DAL
2025-11-08	NSH 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	NSH
2025-10-26	NSH 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-04-16	NSH 5 - 1 DAL	NSH	NSH
2025-04-03	DAL 5 - 1 NSH	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	6	0	0.11
1	DAL	12	1	0.90
2	NSH	10	0	0.50
2	DAL	16	1	1.14
3	NSH	15	2	1.28
3	DAL	6	1	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown