Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-11-08 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 5 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 56.4%

BOS: 43.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.38

BOS: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • TOR at home vs BOS: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	1	0.99
1	BOS	20	1	1.18
2	TOR	19	1	1.08
2	BOS	23	3	2.58
3	TOR	22	2	1.77
3	BOS	14	0	0.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 5 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0