Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-11-08 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

TBL: 50.0%

WSH: 50.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.50

WSH: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs WSH: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	WSH
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	WSH
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	9	0	0.67
1	WSH	20	0	0.97
2	TBL	11	0	0.62
2	WSH	16	1	1.36
3	TBL	9	0	0.41
3	WSH	14	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1