New York Islanders at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-11-08 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 0 - 5 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 56.3%

NYI: 43.7%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.33

NYI: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	NYR	NYI
Season SV%	0.910	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	26	21	5	80.8%	3.40	2	-1.60
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	33	33	0	100.0%	3.19	2	3.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYR at home vs NYI: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	NYR 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYR
2026-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-12-27	NYI 2 - 0 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-11-08	NYR 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYR
2025-04-10	NYI 2 - 9 NYR	NYR	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	14	2	1.15
1	NYI	16	1	0.97
2	NYR	11	0	0.63
2	NYI	16	0	1.00
3	NYR	23	0	1.41
3	NYI	8	1	1.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown