Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-11-08 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 6 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 73.8%

BUF: 26.2%

Expected Goals

CAR: 4.01

BUF: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	CAR	BUF
Season SV%	0.899	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	22	19	3	86.4%	2.70	3	-0.30
BUF	Alex Lyon	35	29	6	82.9%	4.11	2	-1.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • CAR at home vs BUF: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	CAR 2 - 1 BUF	CAR	CAR
2025-11-23	BUF 4 - 1 CAR	BUF	CAR
2025-11-08	CAR 6 - 3 BUF	CAR	CAR
2025-04-08	BUF 3 - 0 CAR	BUF	CAR
2025-02-27	CAR 5 - 2 BUF	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	15	0	0.57
1	BUF	7	1	0.58
2	CAR	20	0	1.28
2	BUF	15	1	1.08
3	CAR	18	2	2.25
3	BUF	13	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown