Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-11-08 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 1 - 9 Colorado Avalanche

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 38.2%

COL: 61.8%

Expected Goals

EDM: 2.89

COL: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	EDM	COL
Season SV%	0.896	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.81	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	34	25	9	73.5%	4.87	3	-4.13
COL	Scott Wedgewood	24	23	1	95.8%	2.39	1	1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • EDM at home vs COL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	EDM 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-10	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL
2025-11-08	EDM 1 - 9 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-07	EDM 4 - 5 COL	COL	EDM
2025-01-16	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	9	0	0.32
1	COL	10	0	0.83
2	EDM	16	0	1.29
2	COL	16	2	2.55
3	EDM	12	1	0.78
3	COL	17	1	1.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown