Florida Panthers at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-11-08 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 1 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (65% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 34.6%

FLA: 65.4%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.76

FLA: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

Stat	SJS	FLA
Season SV%	0.896	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	2.96

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	39	38	1	97.4%	4.22	4	3.22
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	23	20	3	87.0%	3.73	6	0.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SJS at home vs FLA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	FLA 1 - 4 SJS	SJS	FLA
2025-11-08	SJS 3 - 1 FLA	SJS	FLA
2025-01-25	SJS 2 - 7 FLA	FLA	FLA
2024-12-07	FLA 3 - 1 SJS	FLA	FLA
2023-11-14	SJS 3 - 5 FLA	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	16	2	1.60
1	FLA	13	0	0.73
2	SJS	5	1	0.48
2	FLA	25	2	1.99
3	SJS	10	3	1.65
3	FLA	20	2	1.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown