Chicago Blackhawks at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-11-09 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 5 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 57.7%

CHI: 42.3%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.30

CHI: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

Stat	DET	CHI
Season SV%	0.893	0.873
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	4.02

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	20	15	5	75.0%	2.24	2	-2.76
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	46	45	1	97.8%	5.64	7	4.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • DET at home vs CHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	CHI 0 - 4 DET	DET	DET
2025-11-09	DET 1 - 5 CHI	CHI	DET
2025-01-10	DET 5 - 3 CHI	DET	DET
2024-11-06	CHI 1 - 4 DET	DET	DET
2024-02-25	CHI 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	19	2	1.52
1	CHI	11	0	0.72
2	DET	18	3	2.08
2	CHI	7	0	0.26
3	DET	30	2	2.04
3	CHI	8	2	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown