Los Angeles Kings at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-11-09 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Los Angeles Kings

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 44.0%

LAK: 56.0%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.34

LAK: 3.57

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Sergei Murashov - 1-1-0 | 0.932 SV% | 1.53 GAA

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

Stat	PIT	LAK
Season SV%	0.932	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	1.53	2.27

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Sergei Murashov	27	24	3	88.9%	3.62	3	0.62
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	33	31	2	93.9%	3.25	3	1.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PIT at home vs LAK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-09	PIT 2 - 3 LAK	LAK	LAK
2025-10-16	LAK 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	LAK
2025-01-20	LAK 1 - 5 PIT	PIT	LAK
2024-12-17	PIT 3 - 2 LAK	PIT	LAK
2024-02-18	PIT 1 - 2 LAK	LAK	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	17	2	0.83
1	LAK	14	1	0.81
2	PIT	16	1	1.61
2	LAK	12	0	0.48
3	PIT	16	0	0.81
3	LAK	17	2	2.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown