Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-11-09 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

Win Probability

TOR: 45.3%

CAR: 54.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.30

CAR: 4.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs CAR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	TOR 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-04	CAR 1 - 5 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-11-09	TOR 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-04-13	CAR 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-02-22	TOR 6 - 3 CAR	TOR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	1	0.71
1	CAR	14	1	1.27
2	TOR	10	3	1.40
2	CAR	21	0	1.59
3	TOR	4	0	0.44
3	CAR	28	4	2.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.3 - 4.4