Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-11-09 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 32.4%

CAR: 67.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.81

CAR: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Dennis Hildeby - 3-5-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.90 GAA

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	TOR	CAR
Season SV%	0.912	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.90	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Dennis Hildeby	47	42	5	89.4%	5.45	5	0.45
CAR	Brandon Bussi	20	16	4	80.0%	2.55	4	-1.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs CAR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	TOR 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-04	CAR 1 - 5 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-11-09	TOR 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-04-13	CAR 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-02-22	TOR 6 - 3 CAR	TOR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	1	0.71
1	CAR	14	1	1.27
2	TOR	10	3	1.40
2	CAR	21	0	1.59
3	TOR	4	0	0.44
3	CAR	28	4	2.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown