Utah Hockey Club at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-11-09 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 2 Utah Hockey Club

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 53.8%

UTA: 46.2%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.50

UTA: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

UTA

Vitek Vanecek - 2-9-1 | 0.879 SV% | 2.92 GAA

Stat	OTT	UTA
Season SV%	0.872	0.879
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.46	2.92

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	31	29	2	93.5%	3.74	2	1.74
UTA	Vitek Vanecek	25	21	4	84.0%	3.64	6	-0.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • OTT at home vs UTA: 2-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	UTA 3 - 1 OTT	UTA	OTT
2025-11-09	OTT 4 - 2 UTA	OTT	OTT
2025-01-26	OTT 3 - 1 UTA	OTT	OTT
2024-10-22	UTA 0 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	10	1	0.58
1	UTA	15	1	1.71
2	OTT	10	2	1.12
2	UTA	14	0	0.88
3	OTT	17	3	1.94
3	UTA	16	1	1.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown