Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-11-09 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 1 Seattle Kraken

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 59.5%

SEA: 40.5%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.08

SEA: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

SEA

Matt Murray - 0-2-1 | 0.922 SV% | 2.21 GAA

Stat	DAL	SEA
Season SV%	0.912	0.922
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.44	2.21

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	31	30	1	96.8%	3.03	0	2.03
SEA	Matt Murray	25	23	2	92.0%	3.10	3	1.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • DAL at home vs SEA: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	DAL 4 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-11-26	SEA 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	SEA
2025-11-09	DAL 2 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-03-31	SEA 1 - 3 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-03-29	SEA 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	1	1.14
1	SEA	9	0	0.36
2	DAL	11	1	0.99
2	SEA	21	0	1.46
3	DAL	12	1	0.98
3	SEA	11	0	1.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown