Colorado Avalanche at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-11-09 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 25.0%

COL: 75.0%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.85

COL: 4.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Stat	VAN	COL
Season SV%	0.885	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.41	2.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	32	27	5	84.4%	3.33	2	-1.67
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	33	29	4	87.9%	4.49	7	0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • VAN at home vs COL: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-01	COL 6 - 8 VAN	VAN	COL
2025-12-02	COL 3 - 1 VAN	COL	COL
2025-11-09	VAN 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-04-10	COL 1 - 4 VAN	VAN	COL
2025-02-04	VAN 3 - 0 COL	VAN	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	24	5	2.28
1	COL	17	0	1.26
2	VAN	17	2	1.42
2	COL	12	0	0.70
3	VAN	14	0	0.79
3	COL	15	1	1.03
4	VAN	0	0	0.00
4	COL	2	1	0.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 75.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.8 - 4.2