New York Islanders at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-11-10 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 2 - 3 New York Islanders (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 54.6%

NYI: 45.4%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.28

NYI: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	NJD	NYI
Season SV%	0.884	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.32	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	24	21	3	87.5%	1.72	2	-1.28
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	35	33	2	94.3%	3.94	4	1.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • NJD at home vs NYI: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	NJD 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NJD
2026-01-06	NYI 9 - 0 NJD	NYI	NYI
2025-12-23	NYI 2 - 1 NJD	NYI	NYI
2025-11-10	NJD 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	NJD
2025-04-13	NJD 0 - 1 NYI	NYI	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	16	3	1.45
1	NYI	9	0	0.25
2	NJD	19	0	1.19
2	NYI	9	0	0.59
3	NJD	18	1	1.30
3	NYI	8	1	0.67
4	NJD	0	0	0.00
4	NYI	1	1	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 2 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9