Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-11-11 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 5 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 59.9%

TOR: 40.1%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.25

TOR: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Stat	BOS	TOR
Season SV%	0.903	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	3.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	33	30	3	90.9%	3.98	3	0.98
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	32	27	5	84.4%	4.21	3	-0.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BOS at home vs TOR: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	20	1	1.44
1	TOR	10	0	0.91
2	BOS	19	1	1.46
2	TOR	21	2	1.70
3	BOS	17	1	1.31
3	TOR	20	1	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown