Los Angeles Kings at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-11-11 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 5 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 50.3%

LAK: 49.7%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.20

LAK: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

Stat	MTL	LAK
Season SV%	0.863	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.52	2.27

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	26	21	5	80.8%	3.86	6	-1.14
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	22	21	1	95.5%	2.41	1	1.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MTL at home vs LAK: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	LAK 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	LAK
2025-11-11	MTL 1 - 5 LAK	LAK	MTL
2025-02-05	LAK 6 - 3 MTL	LAK	LAK
2024-10-17	MTL 1 - 4 LAK	LAK	LAK
2023-12-07	MTL 0 - 4 LAK	LAK	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	13	0	1.01
1	LAK	19	2	1.40
2	MTL	13	0	0.62
2	LAK	13	2	1.42
3	MTL	14	1	0.78
3	LAK	13	2	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown