Los Angeles Kings at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-11-11 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 1 - 5 Los Angeles Kings
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 59.1%
LAK: 40.9%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.11
LAK: 2.80
Total Goals
Median: 5.4
Over 5.5: 49%
Over 6.5: 33%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
LAK
Darcy Kuemper - 14-11-9 | 0.900 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | MTL | LAK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.903 | 0.866 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.955 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.27 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • MTL at home vs LAK: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | MTL 1 - 5 LAK | LAK | MTL |
| 2025-02-05 | LAK 6 - 3 MTL | LAK | LAK |
| 2024-10-17 | MTL 1 - 4 LAK | LAK | MTL |
| 2023-12-07 | MTL 0 - 4 LAK | LAK | MTL |
| 2023-11-25 | LAK 4 - 0 MTL | LAK | LAK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:17 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 05:22 | LAK | Goal |
| 2 | 04:17 | LAK | Goal |
| 2 | 01:17 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 15:32 | LAK | Goal |
| 3 | 11:08 | LAK | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 1 - 5 Los Angeles Kings
Expected: 3.1 - 2.8